Bill Gates issued a special warning that the cause of the raging virus has been found, how should humans respond?

According to a report quoted by the Global Times in the Financial Times, Microsoft founder Bill Gates said in an interview on April 2 that world leaders and policy makers have already spent tens of thousands more due to the virus outbreak Billions of dollars, and if we are properly prepared, the cost will not be so large. He also warned that the new coronavirus is the biggest event many people have experienced in their lives, but people have now realized that in the future, it is likely that such a virus outbreak will occur every 20 years or so.

In fact, Bill Gates has made a lot of research investment in this area, so he once predicted something like the new crown epidemic. Earlier, he had issued a warning that the spread of viruses such as the new coronavirus may cause 30 million deaths worldwide.

 

So, is Gates’ warning reliable? How will our human society change in the future? What should we do?

First of all, in the view of Zhanhao (WeChat public account: Zhanhao), Gates’ warning is scientific and very worthy of people’s vigilance. This time the new crown epidemic has objectively told us this. As for whether it is once in 20 years, it is not the most important whether the death number is 30 million.

In fact, from the situation of the past 20 years, the outbreak cycle of the virus is far more than 20 years. SARS pneumonia in 2003, H1N1 influenza virus in 2009, Middle East respiratory syndrome in 2012, and new coronary pneumonia in 2019. The time interval ranged from 3 to 7 years and did not reach 20 years. Except for the new crown, which is still raging, the other three viruses, if not controlled at the time, are likely to bring huge disasters to humanity. This time, New Coronary Pneumonia has refreshed our knowledge of the virus again.

The New Crown epidemic is still raging. It is difficult to predict exactly how many people this virus will eventually infect, but as Zhanhao (WeChat public account: Zhanhao) previously analyzed, there are now more than 200 countries and All regions are infected, which means that it is impossible to stop its spread around the world. According to Zhanhao’s inference, the optimal number of diagnoses in the United States is about 3 million, and the number of deaths is more likely to reach 300,000 or even higher. Trump’s original estimate is likely to be underestimated.

As of April 11, local time, the United States has detected a total of 2.666 million people, with 523,000 people diagnosed and 20,000 deaths. The diagnosis rate is 19.6% and the mortality rate exceeds 3.8%. In Zhanhao’s view, this indicates four problems:

1. The United States still fails to do adequate testing, the diagnosis rate is too high, and the virus will accelerate the spread in the future

The total number of people testing in China exceeds 5 million, with 83,000 diagnoses, and the diagnosis rate is less than 1.7%. This shows that the United States is still far from extensive testing. According to official US disclosures, the United States expects to meet the technical requirements for comprehensive testing in May, so the United States is still far from blocking the source of infection, which means that the inflection point of the virus transmission in the United States has not yet arrived and will accelerate the spread.

2. The number of infected people in the United States actually far exceeds the number of diagnoses

Now the number of more than 30,000 people diagnosed in the United States every day is not limited to more than 30,000 infections, but is limited to the ability to detect, so the inflection point of the US epidemic is still far away. Even if comprehensive testing begins in May, the real inflection point will probably be in June and July .

3. The US medical system is being crushed

With the rapid increase of cases, the pressure will increase, and the mortality rate will rise rapidly. According to the current trend, the final mortality rate is likely to reach about 10% of major European countries.

4. The final death toll in the US may exceed 300,000

Assuming that the US government’s expectations are correct, under the ideal state, extensive testing can be started in early May, with about 20 days left. By the time full testing can be carried out, the number of infected people in the US has reached or even exceeded 1.2 million. If the United States can speed up testing in May to form an inflection point, it is estimated that the number of eventually diagnosed infections should be at least close to or reach about 3 million people. Based on the 10% mortality rate after crushing the medical system, at least 300,000 people may die (if the number of diagnoses reaches 3 million, the actual number of infections will be at least 5 million). If the prevention and control process is not ideal, the situation may be even worse.

If calculated as 3 million infections in the United States and 300,000 deaths, the new crown will cause an infection rate of one percent in the United States and a death rate of one thousandth. Looking at the data in Europe now, the death toll in Italy is close to 20,000. If calculated in one-thousandth, the death toll in Italy may reach 60,000. Considering that there are a large number of undiagnosed deaths, it is estimated that it will not be too bad. Many (statistics may be low, but due to the long duration of the epidemic, a large number of people have not detected self-healing and undetected deaths, and the actual number has a high probability of reaching this number).

Well, globally, apart from China, if the developed countries have a one percent infection rate and one thousandth mortality rate, outbreaks in some countries and regions like Africa, Latin America, South Asia, and Southeast Asia, the infection rate and The death toll may exceed this ratio. Calculated on the basis of two percentage figures, one percent and one thousandth, 70 million people will be infected with new coronary pneumonia and die 7 million. All of this is actually a relatively conservative estimate. If the new crown will continue to wreak havoc for several years, because the medical systems in developing and less developed countries are too weak, the number of infections and deaths may exceed this estimate. From this we can infer that Zhanhao (WeChat public account: Zhanhao) estimated in mid-March that the epidemic may cause tens of millions of infections and millions of deaths worldwide, and is now being misunderstood.

It is also for this reason that Zhanhao said that Bill Gates ’s warning was questionable even in numbers, but this trend and the actual threat are there, and the new crown is the most typical example.

So, what exactly causes the epidemic to repeat?

there are three reasons:

1. Accelerated globalization

The accelerated advancement of globalization means the accelerated integration of human society, and human transportation has become extremely convenient. This has accelerated the spread of the virus, so that once the epidemic breaks out, if it cannot be stopped in time, it will spread throughout the world in a very short time. Because of the unstoppable trend of human globalization, the threat of outbreaks in the world will continue to increase. This is a factor in the speed of propagation.

2. The destruction of nature by human development

With the rapid increase in the number of people around the world, the scope of human activities is constantly expanding, the development of humans on the earth is getting deeper and deeper, the pressure on nature is increasing, and the viruses that are hidden deeply are getting more and more Have the opportunity to be activated.

Where do these viruses exist? On the one hand, it exists in animals, on the other hand, it exists in some deep places on the earth. For example, for the SARS virus and this new coronavirus, scientists speculate that they are all derived from the mutation of the virus in the bat. Scientists also speculate that a large number of ancient viruses are hidden under the Antarctic ice sheet.

3. Accelerated integration of human and nature

It was previously rumored that the outbreak was caused by humans eating bats. It is now proved that although it is not the case, the virus that is closest to the new coronavirus is now on bats, and the similarity has reached 96%. Although the 4% gap is already huge (the genetic similarity between humans and orangutans reaches 99%, the genetic similarity to dogs is as high as 96%, and the genetic similarity to bananas exceeds 50%), this has proved that the virus is likely to be in The bat was hidden, and then infected people through the intermediate host. In addition, viruses such as the plague are still widespread in some wild animals, such as the bamboo rat, which can infect humans.

However, as humans develop more deeply into the world and have wider and wider activities, the probability of viruses spreading to people becomes higher and higher, and the probability of outbreaks of various plagues also increases. Therefore, once the epidemic breaks out, if it cannot be controlled in time, the harm to humans is extremely huge.

Based on the above factors, humans must make changes!

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